How could we possibly think about winter right now? We know, we know, there’s still much more warm weather to come and a little over a month left of summer. But the National Weather Service‘s Climate Prediction Center just dropped its Seattle winter forecast predictions and it’s looking chilly.

Over the past month, below-average sea surface temperatures have expanded across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Further, “the weekly Niño indices indicated renewed cooling, with the latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 indices reaching -1.0°C.” Overall, that means La Niña is the most likely outcome during the fall and winter.

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What exactly does that mean? Basically when we have a La Niña, warm water is pushed towards Asia while cold water comes our way on the western coasts of the Americas. This leads to chillier temps and can contribute to whether or not it snows. If the National Weather Service’s predictions are correct, it will be the third La Niña winter for the Seattle area.

That being said, the chances for La Niña are gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23. So cold and rain yes but before you lose all hope, we truly will have to wait until fall to see exactly what’s in store. Until then, we’d say it’s safe to pull out your rain boots and umbrellas and keep them by your door.