With the final days of summer upon us, it’s time to prepare for fall weather and everything that comes with it. In Canada, that could mean everything from a traditional autumn to a torrent of rain, to downright freezing temperatures. What’s more, The Weather Network (TWN) predicts a “fickle” season ahead for Canadians due to El Niño conditions growing ever-stronger, according to its official Fall Forecast for 2023.
After three years of strong La Niña conditions, ocean water temperatures in the tropical Pacific are undergoing a complete reversal, which affects weather patterns across the globe. Couple that with the atmosphere’s natural transition from summer to winter, and you’ve got quite a mixed bag when it comes to fall weather.
Overall, Canadians can expect “extended periods of mild weather” to dominate the season, with near-normal and above-normal temperatures in nearly every province.
September has already featured record heat, wildfires, frost, and major threats from the tropics. Is this an indication of what we can expect over the next few months as we transition from summer to winter? #FallForecast 🍃🍂🍁 https://t.co/n4BvcmvywB pic.twitter.com/UmCVv2Inyb
— The Weather Network (@weathernetwork) September 22, 2023
TWN warns Canadians that most of the country can expect a “false start to winter” sometime in October with the arrival of cold, winter-like air. This feeling will be short-lived, however, as warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to return during November and continue well into December.
So all in all, most of Canada will see milder weather this year, punctuated by brief periods of colder-than-normal weather – and fewer storms than usual. However, the few storms that do occur may come with a heightened risk of “excessive rain and high winds,” so don’t pack away your rain gear just yet.
So what should you prepare for in your region?
Wildfire and smoke relief is finally on its way in BC with the last week of September – though don’t let the rain fool you. TWN says that the province is expected to transition to a pattern of “mild and dry weather” that will dominate much of the fall season.
However, there are a handful of “high-impact storms” expected to hit the province before the end of the season, so British Columbians are not completely out of the rainy woods just yet.
According to TWN, warmer-than-normal ocean water temperatures in the North Pacific mean the province is at a greater risk for excessive rain when storms do roll around. So enjoy the stretches of mild weather, but prepare for bursts of colder, wetter days ahead.
Likewise, a “cold air outbreak” is forecasted across the Prairies, including Alberta. Overall though, Albertans can expect warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout much of the season.
Like every fall, the province will experience shots of “early winter-like weather” mid-season, and potentially an extended stretch of cold temperatures. But warmer, milder weather will be right around the corner at the end of fall.
As for rain, Albertans can expect drier-than-normal conditions across southern parts of the province, including Calgary. However, Edmontonians can expect near-normal precipitation, as can the rest of the province. So it’s shaping up to be a mixed bag of weather patterns this year.
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After enjoying extended warm and dry weather in September and into early October, Ontarians can expect a more abrupt transition to fall, with periods of “colder-than-normal weather” hitting the province during October.
While it may seem like winter is arriving early, rest assured that the weather will take yet another turn in November, returning to a comfortable, “mild” weather pattern that will last through much of December.
So all in all, alternating periods of warm and cold weather mean that the province can expect near-normal temperatures for the season as a whole. So keep your layers handy, and expect a delayed start to ski season.
As with Ontario, Quebec is expected to have a warmer and drier start to fall, with a sudden shift to periods of colder-than-normal weather in October.
While there could be a delay in the start of ski season, October and November are expected to bring a couple of “high-impact storms” to the region. Rest assured though that the total number of storms will be less than usual.
As for Atlantic Canada – Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI are all expected to settle into a traditional fall pattern of alternating periods of warmer-than-normal and colder-than-normal temperatures. For the most part, the Maritimes will see fewer fall storms than normal, and near-normal precipitation.
Newfoundland and Labrador will also experience temperature swings throughout the season, along with fewer “regular” storms than normal.
Finally, we come to the Northern Territories, which are expected to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures across the western and central parts of the region, including Yellowknife and Whitehorse. On the other hand, the eastern part of the region can expect slightly colder-than-normal temperatures.
The region’s challenging wildfire season will also finally come to an end with the help of near-normal or above-normal rain and snow totals.
So there you have it!
Enjoy the sunshine and mild start to fall, because Canada is in for some “fickle” fall weather, it seems.